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Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates

Winebrake, J.J. and Corbett, J.J. and Green, E.H. and Lauer, A. and Eyring, V. (2009) Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates. Environmental Science & Technology, 43 (13), pp. 4776-4782. DOI: 10.1021/es803224q.

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Official URL: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es803224q

Abstract

Concerns about health effects due to emissions from ships have magnified international policy debate regarding low-sulfur fuel mandates for marine fuel. Policy discussions center on setting sulfur content levels and the geographic specification of low-sulfur fuel use. We quantify changes in premature mortality due to emissions from ships under several sulfur emissions control scenarios. We compare a 2012 No Control scenario (assuming 2.7% or 27 000ppmS) with three emissions control scenarios. Two control scenarios represent cases where marine fuel is limited to 0.5% S (5000 ppm) and 0.1% S (1000 ppm) content, respectively, within 200 nautical miles of coastal areas. The third control scenario represents a global limit of 0.5% S. We apply the global climate model ECHAM5/MESSy1-MADE to geospatial emissions inventories to determine worldwide concentrations of particular matter (PM2.5) from oceangoing vessels. Using those PM2.5 concentrations in cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models, we estimate annual premature mortality. Without control, our central estimate is approximately 87 000 premature deaths annually in 2012. Coastal area control scenarios reduce premature deaths by ~33 500 for the 0.5% case and ~43 500 for the 0.1% case. Where fuel sulfur content is reduced globally to 0.5% S, premature deaths are reduced by ~41 200. These results provide important support that global health benefits are associated with low-sulfur marine fuels,andallowforrelativecomparisonofthebenefitsofalternative control strategies.

Document Type:Article
Title:Mitigating the Health Impacts of Pollution from Oceangoing Shipping: An Assessment of Low-Sulfur Fuel Mandates
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Winebrake, J.J.Rochester Inst. of Technology, Rochester, New York, USA
Corbett, J.J.Univ. of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, USA
Green, E.H.Univ. of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, USA
Lauer, A.Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
Eyring, V.UNSPECIFIED
Date:2009
Journal or Publication Title:Environmental Science & Technology
Refereed publication:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:43
DOI:10.1021/es803224q
Page Range:pp. 4776-4782
Status:Published
Keywords:shipping, particulate matter, air quality, human health
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Umweltwirkungen des Verkehrs (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: PD Dr. habil. Veronika Eyring
Deposited On:03 Dec 2009 15:45
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:46

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