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Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale

Post, Joachim and Wegscheider, Stephanie and Mück, Matthias and Zosseder, Kai and Kiefl, Ralph and Steinmetz, Tilmann and Strunz, Günter (2009) Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9 (4), pp. 1075-1086. Copernicus Publications. ISSN 1561-8633.

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Official URL: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1075/2009/

Abstract

Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.

Document Type:Article
Title:Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Post, JoachimJoachim.Post@dlr.de
Wegscheider, Stephaniestephanie.wegscheider@dlr.de
Mück, Matthiasmatthias.mueck@dlr.de
Zosseder, Kaikai.zosseder@dlr.de
Kiefl, Ralphralph.kiefl@dlr.de
Steinmetz, Tilmanntilmann.steinmetz@dlr.de
Strunz, GünterGuenter.Strunz@dlr.de
Date:July 2009
Journal or Publication Title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:9
Page Range:pp. 1075-1086
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1561-8633
Status:Published
Keywords:Risk, Vulnerability, Early Warning, Tsunami, Indonesia
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W - no assignement
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W - no assignement
DLR - Research theme (Project):W -- no assignement (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Environment and Security
Deposited By: Dr.rer.nat. Joachim Post
Deposited On:10 Aug 2009 09:03
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:40

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