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Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts

Mock, Peter und Hülsebusch, Dirk und Ungethüm, Jörg und Schmid, Stephan (2009) Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts. EVS24 - 24th International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, 13.-16. Mai 2009, Stavanger, Norwegen.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.evs24.org

Kurzfassung

Assessing future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles requires taking into account the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. The Modelica library AlternativeVehicles is used to analyse energy consumption of battery (BEV), extended range electric (EREV) as well as fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV). Costs of technical measures for enhancing conventional vehicles, as well as cost curves for batteries and fuel cells are assessed. Using a newly developed model, VECTOR21, customer purchase decision is modeled to derive future market shares of propulsion technologies and fuels, taking into account energy consumption, energy prices and taxation as relevant influencing factors. Two different scenarios demonstrate the dependency of future market prospects on a set of general conditions. With electricity and hydrogen being produced from renewable energy sources, as well as implementation of strict regulations regarding CO2, BEV and FCHEV could achieve a market share of up to approx. 65 % on the German new passenger car market by 2030. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 65 % in this scenario. In a less ambitious scenario a market share of approx. 20 % is seen for BEV, with no application of FCHEV in the long run. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 40 % in this scenario.

Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Mock, Peterpeter.mock@dlr.de
Hülsebusch, Dirkdirk.huelsebusch@dlr.de
Ungethüm, Jörgjoerg.ungethuem@dlr.de
Schmid, Stephanstephan.schmid@dlr.de
Datum:13 Mai 2009
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Name der Reihe:EVS24 - Symposium Proceedings
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:modeling, passenger car, energy consumption, cost, market, environment
Veranstaltungstitel:EVS24 - 24th International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium
Veranstaltungsort:Stavanger, Norwegen
Veranstaltungsart:Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:13.-16. Mai 2009
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - VECTOR21 (alt)
Standort: Stuttgart
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Fahrzeugkonzepte > Technikbewertung
Hinterlegt von: Peter Mock
Hinterlegt am:03 Jul 2009 10:25
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 20:38

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