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Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts

Mock, Peter and Hülsebusch, Dirk and Ungethüm, Jörg and Schmid, Stephan (2009) Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts. EVS24 - 24th International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, 13.-16. Mai 2009, Stavanger, Norwegen.

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Official URL: http://www.evs24.org

Abstract

Assessing future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles requires taking into account the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. The Modelica library AlternativeVehicles is used to analyse energy consumption of battery (BEV), extended range electric (EREV) as well as fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEV). Costs of technical measures for enhancing conventional vehicles, as well as cost curves for batteries and fuel cells are assessed. Using a newly developed model, VECTOR21, customer purchase decision is modeled to derive future market shares of propulsion technologies and fuels, taking into account energy consumption, energy prices and taxation as relevant influencing factors. Two different scenarios demonstrate the dependency of future market prospects on a set of general conditions. With electricity and hydrogen being produced from renewable energy sources, as well as implementation of strict regulations regarding CO2, BEV and FCHEV could achieve a market share of up to approx. 65 % on the German new passenger car market by 2030. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 65 % in this scenario. In a less ambitious scenario a market share of approx. 20 % is seen for BEV, with no application of FCHEV in the long run. CO2 emissions of the vehicle stock could be reduced by approx. 40 % in this scenario.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Electric vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects and environmental impacts
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Mock, Peterpeter.mock@dlr.de
Hülsebusch, Dirkdirk.huelsebusch@dlr.de
Ungethüm, Jörgjoerg.ungethuem@dlr.de
Schmid, Stephanstephan.schmid@dlr.de
Date:13 May 2009
Refereed publication:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Series Name:EVS24 - Symposium Proceedings
Status:Published
Keywords:modeling, passenger car, energy consumption, cost, market, environment
Event Title:EVS24 - 24th International Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium
Event Location:Stavanger, Norwegen
Event Type:Conference
Event Dates:13.-16. Mai 2009
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - VECTOR21 (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Peter Mock
Deposited On:03 Jul 2009 10:25
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:38

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