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Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models

Eyring, Veronika and Cionni, I. and Bodeker, G.E. and Charlton-Perez, A.J. and Kinnison, D.E. and Scinocca, J.F. and Waugh, D.W. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dameris, Martin and Dhomse, S. and Frith, S.M. and Garny, H. and Gettelman, G. and Kubin, A. and Langematz, U. and Mancini, E. and Marchand, M. and Shibata, K. and Tian, W. and Nakamura, T. and Oman, L.D. and Pawson, S. and Pitari, G. and Plummer, D.A. and Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Tian, W. and Braesicke, P. and Hardiman, S.C. and Lamarque, J.F. and Morgenstern, O. and Pyle, J.A. and Smale, D. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, pp. 9451-9472. DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010.

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9451/2010/acp-10-9451-2010.pdf


Projections of stratospheric ozone from a suite of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) have been analyzed. In addition to a reference simulation where anthropogenic halogenated ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) vary with time, sensitivity simulations with either ODS or GHG concentrations fixed at 1960 levels were performed to disaggregate the drivers of projected ozone changes. These simulations were also used to assess the two distinct milestones of ozone returning to historical values (ozone return dates) and ozone no longer being influenced by ODSs (full ozone recovery). The date of ozone returning to historical values does not indicate complete recovery from ODSs in most cases, because GHG-induced changes accelerate or decelerate ozone changes in many regions. In the upper stratosphere where CO2-induced stratospheric cooling increases ozone, full ozone recovery is projected to not likely have occurred by 2100 even though ozone returns to its 1980 or even 1960 levels well before (~2025 and 2040, respectively). In contrast, in the tropical lower stratosphere ozone decreases continuously from 1960 to 2100 due to projected increases in tropical upwelling, while by around 2040 it is already very likely that full recovery from the effects of ODSs has occurred, although ODS concentrations are still elevated by this date. In the midlatitude lower stratosphere the evolution differs from that in the tropics, and rather than a steady decrease in ozone, first a decrease in ozone is simulated from 1960 to 2000, which is then followed by a steady increase through the 21st century. Ozone in the midlatitude lower stratosphere returns to 1980 levels by ~2045 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and by ~2055 in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and full ozone recovery is likely reached by 2100 in both hemispheres. Overall, in all regions except the tropical lower stratosphere, full ozone recovery from ODSs occurs significantly later than the return of total column ozone to its 1980 level. The latest return of total column ozone is projected to occur over Antarctica (~2045–2060) whereas it is not likely that full ozone recovery is reached by the end of the 21st century in this region. Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels well before polar stratospheric halogen loading does so (~2025–2030 for total column ozone, cf. 2050–2070 for Cly+60×Bry) and it is likely that full recovery of total column ozone from the effects of ODSs has occurred by ~2035. In contrast to the Antarctic, by 2100 Arctic total column ozone is projected to be above 1960 levels, but not in the fixed GHG simulation, indicating that climate change plays a significant role.

Document Type:Article
Title:Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Eyring, VeronikaDLR
Cionni, I.DLR
Bodeker, G.E.Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, NZ
Charlton-Perez, A.J.Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Scinocca, J.F.Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, CND
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bekki, S.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, F
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Dameris, MartinDLR
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Frith, S.M.Science Systems and Applications, Lanham, MD, USA
Garny, H.DLR
Gettelman, G.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Kubin, A.FU Berlin, Berlin
Langematz, U.FU Berlin, Berlin
Mancini, E.Univ. L'Aquila, L'Aquila, I
Marchand, M.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, F
Shibata, K.Met. Res. Institute, Tsukuba, J
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Nakamura, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Oman, L.D.Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, CND
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pitari, G.Univ. L'Aquila, L'Aquila, I
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, CND
Rozanov, E.Physikalisch-Meteorol. Observatorium Davos, CH
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, CND
Shibata, K.Meteorol. Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Hardiman, S.C.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Lamarque, J.F.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Morgenstern, O.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Pyle, J.A.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Smale, D.National Inst. of Water and Atmos. Research, Lauder, NZ
Yamashita, Y.Univ. of Tokyo, J
Date:February 2010
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 9451-9472
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, CCMs, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin Dameris
Deposited On:20 Feb 2009
Last Modified:26 Mar 2013 13:10

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