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Electrification of passenger vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects, energy need and CO2 emissions

Mock, Peter and Hülsebusch, Dirk and Dr. Schmid, Stephan A. (2009) Electrification of passenger vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects, energy need and CO2 emissions. Kraftwerk Batterie - Lösungen für Automobil und Energieversorgung; Advanced Battery Technologies for Automobiles and Their Electric Power Grid Integration, 2009-01-20 - 2009-01-21, Essen, Deutschland. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpowsour.2008.10.123.

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Abstract

In order to assess future market prospects and environmental impacts of electric vehicles, it is necessary to not only focus on an analysis of individual concepts, but to furthermore compare different technologies and to analyze in detail the competitive situation with regard to established conventional vehicle propulsion technologies. In the work to be presented we focus on the example of passenger cars in Germany up to the year 2030, using an integrated approach for comparing different vehicle technologies based on innovative computer models. Specific energy need and CO2 emissions of each vehicle concept are analyzed for various vehicle size categories and driving cycles. For our assessment we have developed a simulation library for alternative vehicles which is based on the object oriented modeling standard Modelica. It allows characterization of various vehicle concepts and their electrical, mechanical or thermal behavior. For analyzing different scenarios for future market shares of vehicle technologies, their energy need and CO2 emissions we use a newly built computer model which includes data on various vehicle technologies, customers and external effects. Assuming a mostly rational choice behavior of customers when choosing vehicle technologies within a vehicle size category, the number of vehicles differentiated by vehicle technology is calculated for each year of the simulation, using for example information on total cost of ownership (TCO) for each vehicle and taking into account learning curve effects for future costs of batteries and other technical components. Key results of the assessment are future market shares of vehicle technologies, energy need and CO2 emissions of the new vehicle fleet and the existing vehicle stock.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:Electrification of passenger vehicles – A model based assessment of future market prospects, energy need and CO2 emissions
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Mock, PeterUNSPECIFIED
Hülsebusch, DirkUNSPECIFIED
Dr. Schmid, Stephan A.UNSPECIFIED
Date:21 January 2009
Refereed publication:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2008.10.123
Status:Published
Keywords:Fuel cell vehicle, Learning curve, Patent analysis, Publication analysis, S-curve, Bottom-up cost analysis, VECTOR 21, Modelica, CO2, Battery
Event Title:Kraftwerk Batterie - Lösungen für Automobil und Energieversorgung; Advanced Battery Technologies for Automobiles and Their Electric Power Grid Integration
Event Location:Essen, Deutschland
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:2009-01-20 - 2009-01-21
Organizer:Haus der Technik
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Umweltwirkungen des Verkehrs (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Peter Mock
Deposited On:09 Feb 2009
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:36

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