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Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030

Eyring, V. and Lauer, A. and Stevenson, D.S. and Dentener, F.J. and Butler, T. and Lawrence, M.G. and Collins, W.J. and Sanderson, M. and Ellingsen, K. and Gauss, M. and Isaksen, I.S.A. and Hauglustaine, D.A. and Szopa, S. and Richter, A. and Rodriguez, J.M. and Strahan, S.E. and Sudo, K. and Wild, O. and van Noije, T.P.C. (2007) Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030. In: Proceedings of an International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate (TAC), pp. 154-159. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. TAC Conference, 2006-06-26 - 2006-06-29, Oxford, (UK). ISBN 92-79-04583-0.

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Official URL: http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/tac/2006/proceedings/1-14.pdf


The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiative forcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified using an ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and a pre-defined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-day conditions (year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In one scenario emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other emissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030 (termed the ‘Constant Growth Scenario’). The first key question addressed by this study is how NOx and SO2 emissions from international shipping might influence atmospheric chemistry in the next three decades if these emissions increase unabated. The models show future increases in NO2 and ozone burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOx emission totals. For the same ship emission totals but higher emissions from other sources a slightly smaller response is found. The most pronounced changes in annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated over the Baltic and North Seas; other significant changes occur over the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe to Asia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. The second key issue was to examine the range of results given by the individual models compared to the ensemble mean. Uncertainties in the different model approaches in the simulated ozone contributions from ships are found to be significantly smaller than estimated uncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the ship emission totals, the neglect of ship plume dispersion, and the distribution of the emissions over the globe.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Title:Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Stevenson, D.S.Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
Dentener, F.J.Joint Research Centre of the Commission, Ispra, I
Butler, T.MPI, Mainz
Lawrence, M.G.MPI, Mainz
Collins, W.J.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Sanderson, M.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Ellingsen, K.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Gauss, M.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Isaksen, I.S.A.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Hauglustaine, D.A.LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, F
Szopa, S.LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, F
Richter, A.Univ. of Bremen, Bremen
Rodriguez, J.M.GEST, Maryland, Washington, DC, USA
Strahan, S.E.GEST, Maryland, Washington, DC, USA
Sudo, K.JAMSTEC, Yokohama, J
Wild, O.JAMSTEC, Yokohama, J
van Noije, T.P.C.KNMI, De Bilt, NL
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings of an International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate (TAC)
Page Range:pp. 154-159
Publisher:Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg
Series Name:EUR 22428
Keywords:international shipping, global modelling, tropospheric ozone, sulphate, radiative forcing
Event Title:TAC Conference
Event Location:Oxford, (UK)
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:2006-06-26 - 2006-06-29
Organizer:DLR, Manchester Metropolitan Univ.
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Terrestrial Vehicles
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V BF - Bodengebundene Fahrzeuge
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Next Generation Train (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:25 Jun 2008
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:31

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