Predicting and appraising the impact of innovative automated transport systems

Abstract

There is renewed interest in Europe in the potential role of new automated technologies for urban transport. These systems include cybercars, personal rapid transit, automated buses, advanced city cars and dual mode vehicles. Assessing the contribution of such systems when applied extensively in an urban area is challenging. The range of potential applications needs to be specified for a range of city types, demand responses to wholly novel travel forms need to be estimated, the unique supply characteristics need to be encapsulated, and the technologies need to be assessed when operating in conjunction with a range of other policy instruments. A new European project, City Mobil, is addressing this challenge. This paper describes the background to the study, the requirements for the predictive modelling process, the experience gained from a recent attempt at such predictions, the approach to be adopted and, in more detail, the strategic and micro-simulation approaches which are being developed.