Probabilistic Two-Phase Aircraft Wake-Vortex Model: Further Development and Assessment

Abstract

Further developments, applications, and assessments of the probabilistic two-phase aircraft wake-vortex model P2P are described. The wake-vortex model is applied to data of two field measurement campaigns accomplished at Tarbes airport, France. Measurements corroborate unambiguously the two-phase circulation decay anticipated by theory and predicted by P2P. Vortex age and descent speed are adjusted to match effects of axial wind and glide slope angle. Envelopes of vortex trajectories are expanded to consider tilting, stalling and rebounding wake vortices caused by axial- and crosswind shear. For probabilistic model output a choice between arbitrary degrees of probability is established and a stochastic prediction mode is introduced. In a deterministic scoring procedure, model perfomance is compared to the skill of another model. Probabilistic model performance is evaluated by the compilation of probability density distributions which relate wake vortex measurement data to the predicted envelopes.