Bailey, M.E. and Emel'yanenko, V.V. and Hahn, G. and Harris, N.W. and Hughes, K.A. and Muinonen, K. and Scotti, J.V. (1996) Orbital evolution of comet 1995 O1 Hale-Bopp. Monthly Notes of the Royal Astronomical Society, 281, pp. 916-924.
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Results from a series of long-term numerical integrations of orbits centred on that of C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp) are presented. Initially, 33 orbits taken from various sources were integrated in realistic models of the Solar system for various time-scales about the present in the range (-3, +2) Myr and analysed to assess the probability of different dynamical outcomes, such as Sun-grazing state or the number of orbits since the comet was captured from a long-period orbit in the Oort cloud. Further integrations were performed using an ensemble of 26 orbits more closely clustered about the present orbit of the comet, based on a more accurate method of orbit determination. We find that the ensemble half-life for the comet tp be captured or ejected is on the order of 0.5 Myr in the backward integrations and 1.2 Myr in the forward integrations, although a few members of our ensemble were captured during strong encounters with Jupiter within 10 revolutions. Comet Hale-Bopp has a probability pb.15 of evolving to a Sun-grazing end-state and, though not a 'new' comet (in the sense of being recently captured from the Oort cloud), it may be considered dynamically young.
|Title:||Orbital evolution of comet 1995 O1 Hale-Bopp|
|Journal or Publication Title:||Monthly Notes of the Royal Astronomical Society|
|In ISI Web of Science:||Yes|
|Page Range:||pp. 916-924|
|Keywords:||celestial mechanics; stellar dynamics, comets, C/1995 O1; Hale-Bopp; meteors, meteoroids|
|HGF - Research field:||Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)|
|HGF - Program:||Space (old)|
|HGF - Program Themes:||W EW - Erforschung des Weltraums|
|DLR - Research area:||Space|
|DLR - Program:||W EW - Erforschung des Weltraums|
|DLR - Research theme (Project):||UNSPECIFIED|
|Institutes and Institutions:||Institute of Planetary Research > Institut für Planetenerkundung|
|Deposited By:||elib DLR-Beauftragter|
|Deposited On:||02 Apr 2006|
|Last Modified:||27 Apr 2009 09:53|
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