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Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

Andersen, S.B. und Weatherhead, E.C und Stevermer, A. und Austin, J. und Brühl, C. und Fleming, E.L. und de Grandpré, J. und Grewe, Volker und Isaksen, I. und Pitari, G. und Portmann, R.W. und Rognerud, B. und Rosenfield, J.E. und Smyshlyaev, S und Nagashima, T. und Velders, G.J.M. und Weisenstein, D.K. und Xia, J. (2006) Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D02303. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006091.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/

Kurzfassung

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet–2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979–2003. Trends for the past (1979–2000), the recent 7 years (1996–2003), and the future (2000–2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996–2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Andersen, S.B.DMI, Copenhagen, DK
Weatherhead, E.CCooperative Inst., Boulder, CO, USA
Stevermer, A.Cooperative Inst., Boulder, CO, USA
Austin, J.GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA
Brühl, C.MPI, Mainz
Fleming, E.L.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
de Grandpré, J.McGill Univ., Montreal, CND
Grewe, VolkerNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Isaksen, I.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Pitari, G.Univ. of l'Aquila, L'Aquila, I
Portmann, R.W.NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
Rognerud, B.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Rosenfield, J.E.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Smyshlyaev, SRussian State Hydrometeorological Univ., St. Petersburg, R
Nagashima, T.NIES, Tsukuba, J
Velders, G.J.M.Nat. Inst. Public Health, Bilthoven, NL
Weisenstein, D.K.AER, Lexington, MA, USA
Xia, J.Uni. Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
Datum:April 2006
Erschienen in:Journal of Geophysical Research
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:111
DOI :10.1029/2005JD006091
Seitenbereich:D02303
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:ozone layer, CCM modeling, trends, stratosphere
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Dr.rer.nat. Volker Grewe
Hinterlegt am:30 Jan 2006
Letzte Änderung:11 Nov 2014 21:56

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