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Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone

Andersen, S.B. and Weatherhead, E.C and Stevermer, A. and Austin, J. and Brühl, C. and Fleming, E.L. and de Grandpré, J. and Grewe, Volker and Isaksen, I. and Pitari, G. and Portmann, R.W. and Rognerud, B. and Rosenfield, J.E. and Smyshlyaev, S and Nagashima, T. and Velders, G.J.M. and Weisenstein, D.K. and Xia, J. (2006) Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D02303. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006091.

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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/

Abstract

We present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet–2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979–2003. Trends for the past (1979–2000), the recent 7 years (1996–2003), and the future (2000–2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996–2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.

Document Type:Article
Title:Comparison of recent modeled and observed trends in total column ozone
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Andersen, S.B.DMI, Copenhagen, DK
Weatherhead, E.CCooperative Inst., Boulder, CO, USA
Stevermer, A.Cooperative Inst., Boulder, CO, USA
Austin, J.GFDL, Princeton, NJ, USA
Brühl, C.MPI, Mainz
Fleming, E.L.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
de Grandpré, J.McGill Univ., Montreal, CND
Grewe, VolkerUNSPECIFIED
Isaksen, I.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Pitari, G.Univ. of l'Aquila, L'Aquila, I
Portmann, R.W.NOAA, Boulder, CO, USA
Rognerud, B.Univ. of Oslo, Oslo, N
Rosenfield, J.E.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Smyshlyaev, SRussian State Hydrometeorological Univ., St. Petersburg, R
Nagashima, T.NIES, Tsukuba, J
Velders, G.J.M.Nat. Inst. Public Health, Bilthoven, NL
Weisenstein, D.K.AER, Lexington, MA, USA
Xia, J.Uni. Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA
Date:April 2006
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:111
DOI:10.1029/2005JD006091
Page Range:D02303
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone layer, CCM modeling, trends, stratosphere
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Dr.rer.nat. Volker Grewe
Deposited On:30 Jan 2006
Last Modified:27 Apr 2009 04:59

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