Past, Present-Day and Forecasting Inventories for International Shipping and Potential Impact on Climate: Co-operation between Industry and Academia

Kurzfassung

Seagoing ships emit gases and particles into the marine boundary layer along the major ocean trade routes and change the chemical composition of the atmosphere, clouds and climate. The Maritime Environmental Protec-tion Committee of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is responsible for interna-tional regulations of pollution from ships. It proposed international limits for NOx emis-sions in 1996 in Annex VI of the Marine Pollu-tion Convention. Annex VI was ratified in 2004 and entered into force in May 2005. National or regional regulations call for even more stringent NOx limits than those by IMO. Also the European Union steams on with a plan to cut ships' air pollution. The proposal, which must be approved by the European Parlia-ment before being formally endorsed by envi-ronment ministers, would force ships to slash emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) by using fuel with lower sulphur content. Compliances with emission regulations will impact the ship operators and the technology currently in use. In this study we present 2-D ship emission inventories for present day conditions and forecast scenarios until 2050 as well as poten-tial impacts on chemistry and climate. The scenarios are based on different assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The development of forecast-ing emission inventories for CO2, NOx, SOx, hydrocarbons and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate.