Multidisciplinary Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Railway Vehicles in Strong Cross Winds

Abstract

Strong cross winds can be a source of critical loads on running high speed trains, whose effects depend on the mechanical properties of the vehicles. The originated risk must be accurately evaluated to ensure driving safety without setting unnecessarily severe operative limitations. In this work the traditional deterministic approach to the risk analysis in critically reviewed and a probabilistic approach, which can more efficiently manage the parametric uncertainty and the intrinsic randomness of the problem, is discussed. In particular, the role of computational fluid mechanics and multibody simulations as computational tools is considered.